Week 4 Predictions

I ended last week's post stating that college football can be weird sometimes...and if Saturday wasn't a weird/wild but very entertaining day of football, I don't know what is. It appeared to be upset weekend from the begining with quite a few of the nations top teams finding themselves in the loss column by the time all the madness had settled on the day. Virginia knocked off #21 Louisville and once again showed some promise that the Cavs should have a much better season this year. #17 Virginia Tech couldn't avoid the letdown after last week's win at Ohio State and were upset at home by a East Carolina squad that gave #24 South Carolina just about all it could handle for three quarters in week two. #12 UCLA just barely got past Texas and are really beginning to bring their ranking into question after the first few weeks of the season. Tennessee was competitive early but couldn't maintain throughout the second half and fell to Oklahoma. Boston College survived a late rally to hold off #9 USC at home and the Gamecocks got it done at home against #6 Georgia to keep their SEC title hopes alive. This week's menu brings a few interesting games to keep an eye on as Auburn heads to Kansas State for a Thursday night showdown, Florida and Alabama square off in Bryant-Denny Stadium, Oklahoma travels up to West Virginia, South Carolina has its first road game of the season at Vanderbilt and finally, for the second year in a row, Gameday will be on site of the Clemson-Florida State game aka the ACC-Atlantic Championship. Hard to believe it is already week four!

#5 Auburn @ #20 Kansas State
Looks like we could be headed for a shootout Thursday night when Auburn hits the road to take on Kansas State. The Tigers are averaging 52 points and should be well rested coming off their bye week last weekend. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are putting up 43 points per game through the first few weeks. If there was ever a time for Auburn to get a on a roll, its now with five of its next seven opponents ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll. Yikes. Thursday night games on the road have a strange stigma to them and often turn into perfect situations for an upset. I'm interested to see how Auburn does in its first real test of this season. For me this has trouble written all over it. Bill Snyder is a good one and will have his guys ready to rock and roll. If his offense, which is rooted on the success of the running game, can get going early ...watch out. The key will be to have long, productive drives and keep that Auburn offense on the sideline as much as possible. If you've been waiting for my first upset prediction of the 2014 season...you now have it.

The Pick: Kansas State


#4 Oklahoma @ West Virginia 


Former FSU QB Clint Trickett is off to a solid start to the season throwing for 1224 yards, 7 touchdowns with only 1 interception through the first three games of his senior season. I like this Oklahoma team and think they will be among the teams fighting for a spot in the playoffs at the season's end. I think they are the better team here but I would use caution approaching this one. Especially with all that has already occurred in this young season...an upset here isn't too far fetched. But as for me....forget about it. Mountaineers keep it interesting early but Oklahoma finishes the job in the second half. Sooners!

The Pick: Oklahoma 






#3 Alabama vs Florida 
Times are still a bit rough in Gainesville and despite the Gators being 2-0 there is still reason for concern. Kentucky gave Florida all it could handle in the Swamp last weekend. It appears the Wildcats are going to have a decent season this year but you have to remember this is still Kentucky and this ain't basketball. Alabama on the other hand is ready to make a run at another National Championship. The Crimson Tide showed it was far from perfect in week 1 against West Virginia so I don't think Florida is just going to lay down and take it from Nick Saban's squad. However, by the time the mid-third/fourth quarter rolls around I think Alabama's depth and overall coaching advantage will prove to be too much for the mighty Gators.

The Pick: Alabama 

#14 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 
On paper this looks like a game that should be put away well before we even reach halftime. Vanderbilt is flat out awful this year and SHOULD have loss to UMass last weekend and had they not missed a 22 yard field goal late in the game to tie the score, its very likely they would have. All that being said, nothing is a given and the Gamecocks will have to show up and play like they are the better team. First road game of the season and although it is not exactly a Georgia, Florida or Clemson type environment you always have to give your best effort when you hit the road. The big key here is if South Carolina can avoid the letdown after last week's emotional win. I believe they do and take a small, yet very important step closer towards a division title.

The Pick: South Carolina 

#1 Florida State vs #22 Clemson 

Preview: For the second straight year, ESPN's College Gameday will be on site for the showdown between the Tigers and Seminoles. Last year Jameis Winston and the Seminoles played a near perfect game and left Death Valley with a 51-14 win in a game in which the Tigers seemed doomed the moment they took the field. While the Seminoles were clearly the better team, when you turn the ball over 4 times in a game you can't expect to beat anyone. Let alone a top 10 team. Nevertheless, I think the Noles were still at least two touchdowns better than the Tigers if both teams were playing at their best. This year's game is missing some of the high profile players from last season but still has NFL talent on both sidelines.

One of those key players though, none other Jameis Winston himself, won't see the field until the 3rd quarter for yelling derogatory obscenities Tuesday on campus at the Student Union. The funny part is that had it not been for FSU students taking to social medial to talk about it as it happened....we probably would have never known. So for fans/students upset and defending him...you can blame yourself. I also just find what he said in poor taste considering some still believe he is a rapist. It just doesn't look good. But that's another story for another day. Florida State finally decided to show some type of punishment by suspending him for the first half of the game Saturday making sophomore Sean Maguire the starter. I personally think its a joke. What does a one half suspension really prove or accomplish? Either suspend the kid for the game and finally show a backbone and try to knock some sense into him or don't suspend him at all. This 1st half garbage is a sorry excuse for a punishment and a joke! I can only wonder that if the Noles were playing The Citadel this week instead of week 2, would there have been a more strict punishment. The line for the game is set at about 17 points (down from 20 points before the suspension). That's a pretty significant spread. The last time the Tigers were that big of an underdog on the road was against Miami in 2004. The Tigers won that game in a 24-17 overtime thriller. As of late when the Tigers are big underdogs and not really given a chance to win by "the experts",  they typically play their best. But with a young team still trying to find itself, going into the #1 teams house and leaving with a W is simply put...not likely. But that's why we play the game...you never know what can happen.

Keys to the Game:

1. Turnovers/Mistakes

This one goes without saying but I have to say it anyways. Any chance of the Tigers even making last year's game competitive was shot down due to mistakes and turnovers. Going into "the Doak" to face the #1 Seminoles, playing mistake-free and protecting the football will be a MUST. From simply not being on the same page, false starts, stupid penalties, not knowing your assignment etc the Tigers will have to bring their A game if they want to pull off what I believe would hands down be the biggest regular season win in school history.
2. Special Teams 
Field position and special teams played a HUGE role (as I predicted....just saying) in the week 1 showdown in Athens. The Tigers were pinned deep into their own territory almost every possession and conversely allowed Georgia good field position most of the night. When you go up against a team like FSU with the defending Heisman trophy winner and offense that can beat you in a lot of ways...you can't allow them to win the special teams battle also. A lot of things would have to happen for this game to come down to making/missing a late FG but throughout the game special teams including field position and kick coverage (both of which Clemson was very poor at in Athens) will be a key factor.
3. Running Game 

Getting the running game going will also be huge. But it starts up front with the offensive line. They will have to focus and overcome the environment and be efficient. While we have options at running back, someone will need to step up and become the guy to depend on down the stretch and I'm not sure who that is. I love the running style of Freshmen RB Kurt Fleming who runs more like a fullback and is not afraid of contact but also has some get-up to him as well. Sure, he's a freshmen but I think a guy like him could be beneficial in short yardage situations. Davidson has also shown he has a knack for finding the hole and hitting it and picking up those short yardage gains when needed especially down by the goal line. Adam Choice also looks great and will see some action Saturday night along with Wayne Gallman and DJ Howard.
5. Early Start- The Tigers have been perfect on their first two drives to start games this season and made it look easy when they first took the field in Athens. That is exactly what they need to do Saturday night. Getting off to a good start and putting some points on the board will go a long way in taking advantage of Winston's absence and trying to get ahead early. It certainly won't hurt confidence either. You can't bring out all the stops in the first quarter but getting creative on both offense and how you get pressure on defense will be huge early. Try to keep the Seminole fans in their seats for as long as possible in the 1st half before Winston arrives. If I'm Clemson and I win the toss I also see it as a no-brainer to kick and defer to the second half and at the very least guarantee one less possession for Winston.
4. Luck 
Finally, Clemson needs some luck Saturday night. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good and the Tigers will definitely need some good bounces and tips to come their way. Remember Auburn last year? They had a great deal of luck and easily could have had two-three more losses last year and never reached the title game. Its okay to be lucky. Along with luck, the Tigers need to opportunistic. If the ball is on the ground, somebody in orange needs to come out of the pile with that football. Gotta take advantage of every opportunity to make a play.


Prediction: 

As I've already stated, it would take a lot of things to happen for the Tigers to pull off the win Saturday night in Tallahassee. However, only having to defend Winston for 2 quarters helps a lot. I was there back in 2006, the last time Clemson won there, and I'll be the first to tell ya...its a very, very rough place to play. Those fans and that environment can eat you alive if you aren't prepared and play at your best. I love what I see from Watson and the extra dimension he gives the offense but starting him this weekend is just asking for disaster.  That Florida State defense is still a force and will give their best shot to Clemson and its questionable offensive line. Watson will play and will contribute as needed but Stoudt (as the starter/main guy) gives us the best chance to win. The Seminoles are nearly a 3 touchdown favorite and I think that is 100% justified and fair. However, I think Clemson rolls into town and plays one of its best games and keeps the Seminoles on the ropes. Tigers get off to a good start and maybe even take a small lead into the locker room at halftime but not sure Clemson has what it takes on the offensive line and from an overall depth standpoint to pull off the upset in Tallahassee. Seminoles take it, but closer than what most are predicting.

The Pick: Florida State 38 Clemson 28