Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Week 10 Predictions

The first college football playoff rankings have been released and we now have the first glimpse at who has the best chance to play for all the marbles later this season. Mississippi State is currently sitting at the top as the #1 seed, Florida State is #2, Auburn is #3 and Ole Miss is #4. The Tigers are in at #21 and assuming Florida State wins out and makes the playoffs (I'll discuss this shortly), Clemson is projected to again fill the Orange Bowl slot for the ACC and take on #6 Alabama or Notre Dame according to the current rankings and bowl projections. Clemson vs Alabama would be fun....I would definitely be down for that match up. This week provides us yet another top ten showdown in the SEC with Auburn on the road at Ole Miss as well as the World's Largest Cocktail Party down in Jacksonville, FL as Georgia and Florida square off for bragging rights. It could indeed be Will Muschamp's last chance at survival although I think he's done this year regardless. UNLESS he somehow manages to win out which would include beating Georgia on Saturday, South Carolina at home and taking down rival Florida State down in Tallahassee to conclude the season. And lets just be honest....that ain't happening. Forget about it. Clemson is off this week and prepares for its final stretch which picks up again next Thursday night in Winston-Salem against Wake Forest. South Carolina is back at home after nearly pulling the upset at Auburn last week and will face Tennessee in prime-time action in Williams Brice Stadium Saturday night. Finally, Florida State welcomes ACC rookie, Louisville, to town in a game that should be very competitive and physical. I'll go ahead and say it now....the Seminoles are on upset alert this week. They better be ready. From a Clemson perspective you almost want Florida State to win out because if they do, that opens up the chance for the Orange Bowl to take us as the ACC representative. Further, one loss doesn't help us much (as Clemson fans) as far as an ACC Title goes as we would need them to lose not once but twice before we'd have a chance at claiming the division because they would have the tie-breaker over us if we both were to end with 1 conference loss. Now lets make some predictions!


South Carolina vs Tennessee  

The Gamecocks left it all on the table last weekend, taking chances, going for it on 4th down, kicking onside kicks and playing like a team that had nothing to lose.....because, well...they don't. At this point, they have no chance at winning a division title and they are actually in danger of not even making a bowl game, especially if they go down Saturday night. Right now they sit at 4-4 and while the offense has continued to show it can move the ball at times, I'm not sure they could stop my high school's offense right now. (Which is isn't half bad this year, actually...but nevertheless still a high school offense.) The Vols are still looking for their first conference victory but were just a play or two away from beating both Georgia and Florida. They lost by 31 to Ole Miss but only 14 to Alabama so its kinda hard to gauge how good (or bad) this team really is. One thing is for sure, they are eager to get that first win. Will the Gamecocks play as inspired as they did last week for Auburn? If they play at that level then obviously they walk away with this game in the 2nd half but if they come out uninterested and come out with no sense of intensity or focus they could be in for a four quarter battle. On paper, I think SC is a solid two possessions better but I'm worried about where they are mentally right now and if they care about the game Saturday. Slow start or not, I think they grind out a ugly win over the Vols Saturday night.

The Pick: South Carolina 


#3 Auburn @ #4 Ole Miss 

The Tigers flirted with disaster last weekend when the Gamecocks came to town but were able to swat down the Hail Mary in the game's final moments to hold on for the thrilling 42-35 win. It was a very entertaining game but gave a little reason for concern if you are a Tiger fan as we head into the final stretch of the regular season. It's almost like the playoffs have already begun if you are in the top ten of the rankings and its just survive and advance at this point. Find a way to win, not matter how ugly it might be (looking at you, Clemson)...find a way to win and move to the next game. Auburn is on the road Saturday and will have its hands full with Bo Wallace and the Rebels, who are coming off their first loss of the season last week on the road at LSU. From an SEC-West perspective, this game is simply put...HUGE. Both teams have lost a game in conference and need to win Saturday to keep their SEC title and playoff aspirations alive and strong. I could see this game going either way but going to give a slight edge to the Rebels at home and think they play inspired football and their defense comes up big yet again and helps push them to the finish line Saturday night.

The Pick: Ole Miss


#11 Georgia vs Florida 

One of my personal favorite rivalries in college football adds another chapter this weekend down in Jacksonville. While Florida isn't has good as it usually is, this game will be just as intense as any other. With Muschamp's job hanging in the balance, I would expect to see a little bit of everything Saturday from the Gators and for him to dig into the bag of tricks to try find a way to get points on the board. However, I don't think it'll be enough. Georgia is a dangerous team right now playing well on both sides of the ball. Nick Chubb has proved himself not only worthy of the starting position but as one of the best running backs in the nation and will easily fill the void left by Gurley after this season and moving forward. Huston Mason continues to mature and be a good game-manager and leader for his team. Pruitt's defense is coming together and beginning to live up to the expectations of their new defensive coordinator and are buying into his system. You never know what can happen in a rivalry game but I think Georgia is a solid football team and will handle their business Saturday afternoon. It would take a series of fluke things to happen to even keep this one close. Dawgs win and win BIG.

The Pick: Georgia 


#2 Florida State @ Louisville 

The Seminoles are on the road this week at new kid on the block, Louisville. This is a game I've been waiting for since early in the season and a game that I thought could be a very dangerous one for Florida State. We are now less than 24 hours away from the game and that thought still holds true. FSU has yet to play their best and complete game. While they have found ways to win, it hasn't been pretty...at all. But give them credit for remaining undefeated to this point as North Carolina State, Clemson and most recently, Notre Dame all had the Seminoles on the ropes but couldn't deliver the knockout punch. Enter Louisville, who will get the chance for the upset at home...on a Thursday night. I've told you many times before about Thursday night road games for ranked teams and how it just seems to be the perfect recipe for an upset. I believe it to be true tomorrow night as well. I like what I saw out of this Cardinals team when they came to Death Valley. They are big and physical on the offensive line, have a handful of powerful running backs who you have to wrap up and almost gang tackle to get down, very capable wide-outs and a salty defense that can make plays. Add in the home field advantage factor and you have to like the Cardinals' chances Thursday night. Florida State has been battle tested and they will come ready to play but they absolutely cannot afford to get behind early like they did against North Carolina State on the road. They were able to come back from that deficit but if you give these guys that big of a lead, their defense isn't like the Wolfpack and isn't going to let you score touchdowns on four or five straight possessions to get the win. All this being said, I think Louisville knocks off the Seminoles at home and makes the race in the Atlantic division a bit more interesting.

The Pick: Louisville 



Other Predictions: 

#1 Mississippi State over Arkansas 
#5 Oregon over Stanford 
#9 Kansas State over Oklahoma State
#14 Arizona over #22 UCLA




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