Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Week 11 Predictions

Now that's what I call a good weekend. Been a busy one but well worth every minute of driving and lack of sleep. Thursday night I headed up to Charlotte to catch the Panthers/Saints game and while the game didn't quite turn out as I had hoped it was nice to be back for my second Panthers game this season and getting the hook up on seats seven rows up from the field right behind the Carolina bench wasn't too shabby, either. Best part of the day was (nearly) getting to meet Michael Irvin before he was pulled away by Event Staff  after sound checks for the Pre-Game show. He did however make time to take pictures with a fan and his two sons and have the guy his email so that he could tweet it out later to everyone. Seemed to be a very nice guy and I regret that I wasn't able to at least shake his hand before he was pushed away. Nevertheless, #88 definitely gained another fan Thursday night. Always nice to see guys like that take time to interact with fans and do it with a smile. In other Thursday night action, Florida State rallied from a 21-0 deficit to take down Louisville, 42-31 which basically guarantees that they will again win the Atlantic division and play for another ACC Championship the first weekend of December.

On Friday, I was on the road again and ventured down to Columbia to visit friends for the weekend and watch the Gamecocks and Volunteers go at it Saturday night in a bone-chilling, rainy day down in the midlands. It was another head scratching 4th quarter debacle by the Gamecocks as they let a 14 point lead with just under 5 minutes left in the game slip right through their hands before falling in overtime 45-42. After leading for much of the contest and scoring on a 70 yard run by Brandon Wilds to take a 42-28 lead most fans (that had stuck around) began heading for the exits and the warmth of their cars. But Tennessee would storm down the field and score, get a quick three and out and score again to tie the game up with just under a minute remaining in regulation. After putting up a field goal on their possession, they would force back-to-back sacks on Dylan Thompson knocking the Gamecocks out of field goal range and their desperation kick fell way short and the Tennessee faithful that made the trip and stuck around were rewarded with one of the most unbelievable comeback wins you'll see.

Elsewhere in the country, Tennessee wasn't the only one raising some eyebrows.  A late interception ended Arkansas' upset big against #1 Mississippi State as they fell to the Bulldogs, 17-10. Ole Miss came inches, yes literally inches away from taking down Auburn at home but fumbled the ball down at the goal line and the Tigers would recover and survive, 35-31. Oregon had no trouble with Stanford rolling to a 45-16 victory. A late field goal lifted TCU past West Virginia, 31-30. Everett Goldson tossed for 6 touchdowns and the Irish held off Navy, 49-39. Duke and Pittsburgh lit up the scoreboard as the Blue Devils won a double overtime thriller, 51-48. And the biggest surprise of the day game down in Jacksonville as Florida ran wild all over Georgia and Will Muschamp will live to coach another game as his Gators won 38-20. Well, I've rambled on long enough so its time to get to business and take a look and this weekend's games.


#21 Clemson @ Wake Forest

I'll be making the trek up to Winston-Salem for the first time Thursday to watch my Tigers as they return to a venue formerly known as the House of Horrors. Back in the Bowden era, you had to hold your breath every time Clemson hit the road for Wake Forest despite the Tigers nearly always being a far better team. But as I've discussed before, the Tigers have become a team and program that wins these types of games unlike the Clemson of old. They haven't loss to Wake Forest since 2008 when they fell to the Demon Deacons 12-7. The offense continues to struggle in the absence of Watson along with other key injuries but the defense continues to shine and is currently ranked as the #2 defense in the nation and was #1 overall for the month of October. They are the top ranked defense when it comes to 3rd down and tackles for loss. While Wake Forest's defense is no Georgia, Florida State or Louisville they still have a pair of solid cornerbacks in seniors Kevin Johnson and Merrill Noel, Jr. On offense....there is plenty of reasons to feel good if you are a Clemson fan. The Demon Deacons rank 108th in passing yards, 128th in rushing yards, and 125th in ppg averaging only 14 per game. Their highest point total was 24 against Utah State and they've been held to single digits twice this season. Watson is listed as doubtful although he will be dressed and is "ready" to play if needed. And as bad as we would like to see him back, we need him back 100% healthy and it isn't worth rushing him back into the game against a team that likely won't score more than 10 points. I look for the Tigers to again have some offensive struggles but coming off the bye week we have some guys rested and healed up and we should have more success than in the previous few games against this Demon Deacon defense. I anticipate Clemson grinding out another one to extend the win streak to six in a row and six straight over Wake Forest. One can only hope we can get another solid performance from one of our backs and make the running game a factor again this week in what could be a cold and rainy night in Winston-Salem.

The Pick: Clemson


#3 Auburn vs Texas A&M

Its funny how quickly things can change. Back in September, A&M was looking like a legitimate playoff contender but after a rough month of October that included three straight losses to Mississippi State, Ole Miss and a 59-0 woodshed beating from Alabama, the Aggies are now unranked and looking to get back on track and finish strong with Auburn, Missouri and LSU still left on the schedule. Kenny Hill is not in the picture for the moment for violation of team rules and freshman Kyle Allen is now running the show while Hill serves out his 2 game suspension which started Saturday. Auburn, like last year, continues to be a team of good fortune and has picked up momentum at the right time. They are running the ball well averaging over 270 rushing yards per game and have scored at least 35 points in their last five games. The experts over in Vegas have the Tigers as 21 point favorites and considering how A&M's offense looked against UL Monroe on Saturday with Kyle Allen under center, I'd have to say that isn't too far fetched. I can't imagine how things will turn out on the road against the #3 team in the nation. This one could get ugly.

The Pick: Auburn

#6 Alabama @ #19 LSU

Nick Saban will once again journey back to Baton Rouge....a place he is very familiar with from his time as the head coach of the Tigers. It seems like every time these two teams get together its a big showdown that not only has major implications within the SEC but for college football as a whole. This year is no different as Alabama looks to climb its way into the top 4 and earn a spot in the playoffs. LSU though will have something to say about that Saturday night in Tiger Stadium. Alabama is once again among the best around when it comes to the defensive side of the ball giving up only 14 points per game which ranks 2nd in the nation. LSU isn't far behind at 4th giving up just over 15 per game. So what I'm saying is this...if you want to see a lot of points, you probably want to find another game as this one looks to be headed for another low scoring, defensive slug-fest. The Tigers have lost 3 out of the last four against the Tide including the 2011 BCS Championship game where they were shutout 21-0. Can the Tigers pull off their second win over a top ten opponent in as many weeks with Alabama coming to town? That's a tall task to ask of anyone...even if you have a strong home field advantage. With that said, Saban is known for having his team prepared for games like these and I think they get it done on the road Saturday night.

The Pick: Alabama

#7 TCU vs #9 Kansas State

Don't look now but TCU is about to mess around and sneak their way into the playoffs. It sounds crazy and I'll be the first to admit I didn't see this one coming. At all. The Horned Frogs already have wins over #4 Oklahoma, #15 Oklahoma State and most recently #20 West Virginia on the road. They nearly took down #5 Baylor but came up short in a 61-58 (!!) barn-burner. Led by QB Trevone Boykin, TCU is lighting up the scoreboard and passing the ball all over the field averaging a whopping 335 yards per game through the air. Make no mistake about it, if they win out, the Frogs' resume will look about as good as anyone, especially when examining one-loss teams. This week will be  make or break for TCU with Coach Synder's Kansas State Wildcats rolling into town. Kansas State has a solid defense that's only giving up around 18 points per game but can they slow down (notice I didn't say stop...) this TCU offense that dropped 82 on Texas Tech just two weeks ago? Those are basketball numbers...HIGH basketball numbers at that. Its unbelievable what this offense has been able to do. Something has gotta give Saturday against K-State's defense. I went with TCU last week over West Virginia and going with them again this week. Its just hard to pick against a team that just scored 82 on a FBS school and whose lowest point total this season was 30 and seems to be gaining more momentum each week.

The Pick: TCU


#25 Louisville @ Boston College

The Cardinals let a big opportunity pass them by Thursday night at home. They had the Seminoles in deep trouble but couldn't hold off the inevitable  FSU rally and make plays when it mattered most to hold on for a the win. But there is no time to hang your head and throw pity parties as they have another test this week on the road at Boston College. The Eagle's Tyler Murphy is a mobile quarterback and is capable of causing problems for Louisville's defense which is among the best in the country. Bobby Petrino is one of the best in the game (although his personal life decisions aren't quite as sharp..) and you gotta think he will have his guys focused and ready to play after last week's disappointing outcome. The loss to Virginia earlier in the season is really hurting them now but the Cards can still finish 9-3 and go to a respectable bowl game. I think they bounce back this week on the road and win a (very) close one over the Eagles.

The Pick: Louisville 

Other Predictions: 

#8 Michigan State over #16 Ohio State
#11 Georgia over Kentucky 
#13 Baylor over #18 Oklahoma
#20 West Virginia over Texas

Upset Special: 
#14 Arizona State over #10 Notre Dame 

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